US spending falls - another soft print

Published date: 16/10/2019

Once again, we see some US data coming in on the weaker side of expectations - much weaker in this instance.  US consumption has been a major component to growth this year, and in the recent retail sales numbers, the fall of 0.3% does not make for good reading with forecasts closer to a rise of 0.3%.  This is quite a miss, though in one month alone, the reaction may be a modest one.  Even so, the USD has taken a modest knock on the release, with the EUR and JPY pairs giving off the notable signals in this case.  

Retail control also came in flat on the month, with the market also looking for a 0.3% rise here, with core sales down 0.1% vs a 0.2% rise expected.  Ex gas and autos spending was flat on the month, so the headline number is a little more severe than it looks, though this was also a miss on the 0.2% expected.  

USD/JPY has been knocked back a little, but as we have seen in recent sessions, it remains intent on pushing higher, having cleared a number of resistance areas on the way up.  For now, if the retail sales miss cannot derail the pair, then the target higher up lies closer to the 109.50-110.00 area, though it is likely to be a slow grind up at best - if at all.  

EUR/USD also saw a brief bump up, but only managed a mere 10-015 ticks, with orders seemingly lying ahead of 1.1050 as the Eurozone fundamentals continue to weigh on the single currency.


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