US durable goods orders for March keeps the good news coming

Published date: 25/04/2019
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Another set of strong data out of the US with March durable goods orders rising far more than expected.  At 2.7%, estimates of 0.7-0.8% were way off the mark, with core durable goods closer to the mark at 0.4% vs 0.2% expected.   Ex-defence and ex-air orders were also very healthy, showing a 1.3% rise on the month compared to calls for a modest 0.1% rise - ex-defence was +2.3%.  

Alongside this data, we also got weekly claims, but this came in weaker than forecast at 230k.  Markets were looking for a number closer to 200k, but the moving average remains low so is not a concern at this stage.  

The USD has been well bid through the session and there is no reason to believe it will give up ground into the North American session ahead.  Indeed, looking to the US Q1 GDP number tomorrow, there is growing talk that the number could come in above the median expectations of 2.2%, with 2.5% being floated around.  This is likely to have maintained the bid through the week despite elevated levels, so there is reason to believe the US may push the greenback to new highs.  

EUR/USD will likely target support ahead of 1.1100.  1.1110-15 is said to be a notable point of support, so a clean break below here should open up a free run towards 1.1000-30. 

Little give in USD/JPY however as yesterday's flash through the 112.00-25 area was little more than that, and we have been holding a range below the 112.00 level since in what looked like an attempted stop case.  

Cable and AUD/USD and bot key targets also, with GBP gunning for the lower half of the 1.2800's after the breach of 1.2900-1.2895.   0.7000 is still a pivotal level in AUD/USD, though a close below here will give sellers the conviction to test lower still.


Comments

  • US durable goods orders for March keeps the good news coming
    Gary bailey says:
    29/04/2019

    Still see UJ higher after touching the Fib

  • US durable goods orders for March keeps the good news coming
    James Kirkland says:
    25/04/2019

    euro will see a rollover, dollar is strong

  • US durable goods orders for March keeps the good news coming
    fahim says:
    25/04/2019

    could see AUSSIE so much lower

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