US data softer on a number of fronts, but nothing major to hit USD aggressively

Published date: 06/12/2018

We have had the first tranche of US data this afternoon, starting off with the ADP jobs survey which shows another 176k job added to the economy - strong, though falls short of market expectations which we looking for a number closer to the 200k mark.  This should not see any material change to the forecasts for Friday's number which is the all-important reading this week, though as has been the case for some time, the headline is instrumental only if backed up by earnings growth which is now key.  

Some 15 minutes later, we got the latest trade balance, which has widened again in Oct from -$54.6bln to -$55.5bln, a little more than expected.  In light of a stronger USD and some expected negative effects from tariffs, this data is of little surprise and in itself is unlikely to impact on the USD as yet. 

Weekly claims are starting to rise, however, and we have had a series of higher than expected readings, which taken as a whole may indeed take the shine off the USD, though ahead of US payrolls on Friday, will be of limited interest today.  

We have seen some USD softening recently, though much of this was ahead of the data and it looks as though the markets are looking to take their lead from the stock markets when they re-open in a little under an hour after yesterday's closure in honour of ex-president George Bush Senior. 

Futures markers are pointing to a negative start, so all eyes will be on USD/JPY, which is refusing to head lower despite ongoing pressure seen in Asia and again in early London.  
EUR/USD is trying to push back towards 1.1400, though continues to face ongoing selling interest.


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