US Retail Sales Miss Expectations By Some Way
Through the morning, we saw the USD on the back foot, though we did recover some ground as traders squared up some of their positions ahead of this afternoon's consumer data. We have just seen the headline sales figure for Sep come in at a measly 0.1%, when forecasts were closer to the 0.7% mark and some expecting higher than this. Core retail sales were also weak, falling 0.1% on the month and this should see the market resuming the downside for the greenback in the session ahead.
One mismatch in the data is the retail control group, which has risen by a larger 0.5%, and this index excludes autos, gas and construction materials and is used as a pure measure for consumer data for the PCE index - a measure of inflation. As such, traders will have to decide on which numbers to go on, but once again, we have a set of data out of the US which is not as clear-cut as we would like to see.
EUR/USD is now looking to test the offers seen into 1.1600, though as we have seen, there is strong resistance here and just above. Buyers will need to clear the 1.1625 mark to get some momentum going -until then, it is likely we will remain in a range.
USD/JPY remains heavy with stocks trading nervously, though we note some support at 111.50 and some it seems are looking to buy just in front of this.
The constant push up in USD/CHF has also given up, both on USD softness and the dampened risk tone, though pre-emtpive buying ahead of 0.9815-30 support is keeping us above 0.9850 for now.