UK wage growth higher than expected, but unemployment rate ticks up

Published date: 13/08/2019

This morning's UK jobs report needs to be taken with a pinch of salt as Brexit dominates sentiment for now.  That said, we have seen wage growth picking up to 3.9% ex-bonus, up from 3.6% and better than the 3.8% reading expected.   The employment change on a 3 month to 3-month basis also exceeds expectations, coming in at 115k vs 28k previously, while forecasts were closer to 65k.  

The only weak spot in the report, however, was the unemployment rate which has ticked up from 3.8% to 3.9%, but in the broader scheme of things, that should not detract from the overall numbers, which also saw the claimant count coming in at a lower than expected 28k.  

Going into the release, GBP was pretty stable, having recovered off the lows seen ahead of 1.2040 in Cable, which remains vulnerable to a push on 1.2000 at some point.  There are plenty of resistance levels seen in the 1.2150-1.2210 area higher up, but as we saw on Monday, 1.2100-10 seems to be carrying the closest tranche of sell orders as no-deal fears continue to hurt sentiment. 

We also saw EUR/GBP pushing briefly above 0.9300 at the end of last week and again yesterday, but since then, the cross rate has been stabilised below here as we await fresh news on Brexit - which will continue to be the ultimate driver of the Pound for now.


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