UK growth in Nov a little higher than expected, but manufacturing suffers

Published date: 11/01/2019

Focus this morning has been on the UK growth figures for Nov, in which we have seen GDP rising a little more than the 0.1% expected - printing 0.2% for the month.  Going into the data, GBP was under pressure with focus on Cable trying to break the tentative support seen in the 1.2700-20 area - which holds for now.  

Looking at the rest of the data metrics, we also saw manufacturing taking a hit on all fronts, with industrial production as a whole down 0.4% against a rise of 0.3% expected, while the trade deficit also widened to show the global balance of trade at -£12.02bln - out from a revised -£11.95bln in Oct.  Naturally, there is every reason to believe the Brexit congestion holding back investment and orders is having a clear negative impact, so traders are still waiting for a breakthrough in Parliament as we edge ever closer to the key meaningful vote next week.  

On this, MPs across the House are largely in unison in looking to avoid a hard Brexit, but just how this is to come about is the big question and until there is any sign that one or other of the many options will be considered - including a second referendum - GBP will remain on the back foot.  

EUR/GBP is once again pushing the highs towards 0.9100 again where we have seen strong resistance.  This stretches up into the 0.9165-75 area, though we note much stronger levels into the mid 0.9200's if indeed we get this far.


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