UK employment rate falls, but job gains slow and wage growth slips

Published date: 14/05/2019

A mixed bag of UK employment data out this morning, where the headline unemployment rate is down another tenth to show 3.8%.  However, this does not show the full picture as job gains on the 3 month average come in at 99k vs 141k expected.  This is already down on the previous 3 month measure of 179k and represents a modest slippage.  To add to that, we also see earnings growth including bonus slip from 3.5% to 3.2%, but ex bonus is down just 0.1% to 3.3% as expected.  

All in all, it remains a healthy report, but the market has not responded to the numbers given the mixed readings.   From the start of the European session, we have seen pressure on GBP, and there is little sign that this will abate, with NY names likely to test lower levels as they did last night.  

Brexit matters will dictate from here, and we continue to watch the performance of EUR/GBP, which looks to have been the major driver of trade this morning and indeed, in the past week.  

Stronger Cable support comes in below the 1.2900 level from 1.2880, but we see modest levels coming up ahead of the figure into 1.2905-10.


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