The OPEC Saga Continues

Published date: 18/06/2018
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It's that time...OPEC and Non-OPEC officials are set to meet in Vienna again! This time we are looking to find out how the cartel is expecting to exit (taper) the output cut agreement. It is said that there may be a hike of 300 - 600k BPD. All week we will be at the ready on our twitter feed to let you know the outcome of the meeting. However, bear in mind that there are often leaks that come out of the meeting by journalists, although take these with a pinch of salt. Iran has the power to veto any deal and look like they may upset the party in Vienna, however, there is an option of a side deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia. 

Back to the OPEC meeting, investment banks are focusing on the amount of oil being brought back to the market with estimates ranging from 500k - 1mln BPD. 

SocGen: Saudi Arabia, The UAE, and Kuwait will Increase output by a combined 500k B/D, beginning in July

Goldman Sachs: A base case. 1mln BPD increase

Barclays: Believe an increase of 700-800k BPD from Q2-Q4 18

We have added the above in to give you a consensus of what analysts are expecting from the meeting, as anything under could see the price of oil surge and vice versa. Looking at today's price action, we can see a rejection as the source reports announce 300-600k BPD. If we do hear any news of 1mln+, expect the floor to break and $60/bbl or so to be tested. 

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