Month-end flows may see some extra volatility, but plenty of Eurozone data

Published date: 29/11/2019

We always say this at the end of the month, but it is always better to prepare for any surprise flows through the day and this may be a little more relevant given we are nearing the end of the year and more and more institutions will start to close their books from this point on.

The US holiday yesterday (Thanksgiving) spreads into Friday as US markets enjoy another early close, so spot ranges have been pretty tight - even by normal standards, and we do not need to look further than EUR/USD to see this.  

However, we have a host of Eurozone data today, headlined by the November inflation stats, which are expected to pick up, but from a very low base.  Yoy CPI is at 0.7% so a move to 0.9% is nothing to get excited about.  German retail sales were significantly lower than expected at down 1.9% in October.  This compared to a forecast of a 0.2% rise.  German unemployment is also out this morning.  

Adding to the data mix, we also have French CPI and consumer spending data, while in Italy, inflation stats are accompanied by the GDP reading for Q3.  

EUR/USD has been stuck fast on the low 1.1000's, but the refusal to move away from this area may suggest the market is not going to give up on another test of the 1.0990 region lower down.  The data this morning may provide the catalyst to set this off, though conviction remains low at this stage in the week.


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