German manufacturing PMIs plunge further still

Published date: 23/09/2019

Well, the EUR is finally reacting to some data this morning, and in the September reading of the PMIs, the manufacturing index has plunged to 41.4, down from 43.5.  The markets were looking for this measure to bottom out last month, with a median forecast of 44.0 expected.  This may have helped stabilise the EUR, but with further deterioration seen, the single currency has reacted in kind and we are seeing lower levels across the board.  

EUR/USD has fallen below 1.1000 again and we are hitting lows below those seen at the end of last week.  We had found some near term support in and around the 1.0990 level, though bids here have been taken out and we are now potentially looking at another revisit of the lows seen closer to 1.0925.  

The data has also pulled the cross rates lower, and as we expected in the notes this morning, EUR/CHF has also taken a dip, moving under 1.0900 here with one eye on the 1.0850 support point.  EUR/GBP is also feeling the pressure as we once again target a move to and through 0.8800, though Brexit uncertainty may offer an element of support here, so this is perhaps not the best EUR pair to look at, at the moment.  

In the other data, French manufacturing PMIs also turned lower sharply, falling from 51.1 to 50.3.  In the services measures, the German PMI slipped from 54.8 to 52.5, while in France, the index fell from 53.4 to 51.6.  So with weakness seen all round, we can expect the EUR to remain under pressure today, though we also have the Markit PMIs for the US to watch out for later.


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