EU Industrial Production Misses Expectations
No real reaction to the Apr EU industrial production figures, which dropped 0.9% on the month. This was even less than expected, although largely reflected in the PMI's previously, so it will have limited impact. Q1 employment growth was a little more than expected at 0.4%, not exactly blazing numbers, but a move in the right direction. With so much event risk ahead of us, it would be unreasonable to think that these numbers would have much of an impact. From the EUR perspective, all focus is on the ECB announcements on Thursday, where there is a good chance the governing council could signal the end of QE this year - however growing sentiment has been moving this way.
EUR/USD is still struggling in the lower 1.1700's for now, and this is down to the risk of a more hawkish Fed tonight, given a potential move in guidance towards 4, rather than 3, rate hikes this year. We see some support either side of 1.1700 in the meantime, however, EUR/GBP is fighting the battle for EUR bulls near-term. EUR/CHF is also trying to dig in around the 1.1600 mark, although helped by a near-term revival in USD/CHF. EUR/JPY is sticking close to 130.00 amid broad-based JPY softening.