EUR unmoved as ECB minutes reiterates economic risks to the downside

Published date: 10/01/2019

There is not too much to take away from the ECB minutes today, other than policymakers continue to make the case for assessing risks to economic activity being skewed to the downside.  Some may see this as 'putting it mildly' amid the weak data that has been flowing out of the Eurozone, with French stats in particular cause for concern as are the negative influence on German exports which have seen growth and output greatly reduced in Europe's leading economy.  

ECB members have also said that the risk situation remains 'fragile and fluid', and that they are 'rotating' in an uncertain environment.   They did, however, mention that fiscal stimulus and lower oil prices offered some upside metrics to the region but that cuts in growth forecasts reflected balanced risks overall. 

There is very little, if any response from the EUR pairs to these minutes, and in the case of EUR/USD specifically, the USD focus seems to be the overriding factor as traders continue to look for opportunities to continue the rates-based adjustment in the USD.  1.1570 seems to have provided resistance near term, though the level and speed of the pullback suggests we may not yet be done with the upside and that a test on 1.1600-20 is still on the table.  

EUR/CHF is also grinding higher to make new highs just above 1.1270, which EUR/GBP is also now above the 0.9050 mark with eyes on 0.9100 resistance once again. 


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