EUR ignoring the data this morning!

Published date: 10/10/2019

We have had some downbeat numbers out of Europe this morning, starting with the latest trade figures in Germany.  The trade balance is at the end of August, showing a smaller than expected surplus to the tune of Eur18.1bln vs median expectations of a Eur19.4bln reading.  This would already have been down on the prior month, which was revised slightly higher to Eur20.5bln, but clearly highlights the global slowdown hurting the export reliant economy.  

Next came the industrial production numbers in France, where August recorded a fall of 0.9%, when a 0.2% rise was forecast.  Manufacturing was down 0.8%, so this puts the annualised production (industrial) down to -1.6% overall.  Not good.  

Nevertheless, we have seen little impact on the EUR, with EUR/USD still looking to push for stops above 1.1000.  As we have noted previously, the lead USD rate is currently moving largely on US metrics, where the Fed is expected to cut rates again in contrast to the ECB, who have already announced further easing measures.   The spot rate is now printing levels above 1.1000, but upside progress is likely to be slow and painful at best, with sellers still comfortable in fading strength in the single currency.


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