CAD in focus this afternoon as Q3 GDP due for release, BoC next week

Published date: 29/11/2019

We get the Q3 GDP number out of Canada this afternoon, and this may light up the CAD later today with the spot rate also stuck in a tight range - flitting either side of the 1.3300 level.  For now, the spot rate is living life below the figure level, but a weak number this afternoon is likely to send the pair higher again.  Markets are looking for a 0.1% rise in September, with Q3 forecast at 1.2% on an annualised basis. 

As we have seen in recent weeks, the mid 1.3300's have provided strong resistance and this week's price action topped out at 1.3330 before stabilising and easing back into more comfortable ranges.  However, it is worth remembering that today's numbers will be considered in light of the BoC meeting next week.  While no one is expecting a change in interest rates next week, they may signal a more clear view towards considering easing measures in the future, something the market is assuming given the last meeting offered a more downbeat outlook to the economy due to global trade uncertainties.  

Even so, this side of the weekend, growth figures close to expectations are likely to see the above-mentioned limits respected, for now, so we will not get our hopes up just yet, but the data will matter a little more given next week's central bank meeting.  

We also have producer price data for October, as well as the budget balance as of September.


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