A quiet day short of market drivers - CHF the main mover

Published date: 10/01/2019

It has been a quiet day short of any major market drivers of note, with the ECB meeting minutes arguably the highlight of the day - albeit an event which has been short of . . . highlights!  Consequently, the EUR has been in a holding pattern with a modest downside bias, steadily giving up gains seen yesterday yet maintaining a foothold on the 1.1500 handle which it is had fought so hard to achieve over weeks and months.

USD/JPY is also digging in after dropping away from the 109.00 level which provided resistance in the recovery from last week's sharp losses.  Sub 108.00 has been rejected for now, and with the help of stable stock markets today, we are slowly gravitating back towards 108.50.  

However, catching the eye has been the CHF rates, led by the EUR rate which has now pushed up to 1.1300 with very little to note behind the move.  Some will naturally assume that SNB intervention is what has driven CHF lower today, though we see little reason why this would be the case at this point in time.  We may have seen some bidding interest into 1.1200 in EUR/CHF which could have encouraged some latent buying, which has also served to push USD/CHF back above 0.9800 as EUR/USD comes off better levels. 

We have Fed speakers this afternoon, with Bullard again reiterating economic slowdown warranting Fed caution.  Fed chair Powell is also speaking soon as are Evans and Clarida later in the day.


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