Markets bedding down for the FOMC tonight

Published date: 08/11/2018

Little if any excitement over the weekly claims data, which has come in as expected.  As such, we look to have set some potential ranges now the early testing of limits is out of the way, with EUR/USD testing 1.1400 and Cable sub 1.3100.  Little in the way of a material bounce so range plays in focus, though we could see a little more action in USD/JPY which has been excruciatingly tight inside 113.60-80 all morning despite equity markets and risk sentiment slipping.

Weekly initial claims have come in at 214k as expected, so there the series of positive labour data continues, and this will be one of the positive points in the FOMC statement later on this evening, supported by the strong jobs report last week. 

There has also been limited fallout from the midterm elections with stocks rallying yesterday on the expected result.  
For the USD, it is now all about the data and how the Fed views the rate profile from here on out, so tonight will be busy if there are any noticeable changes to the rhetoric which is currently pointing to a hike in Dec at the very least.   

Looking beyond the FOMC, producer prices and Michigan sentiment are the only key releases out of the US tomorrow, and these are not market movers at the best of times.


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